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Northern Lights in Iceland: Why This Winter Has Been Exceptional—and What to Expect Next

Northern Lights have been unusually strong and frequent in Iceland this winter, with more bright displays and more nights where the aurora has been visible across wide stretches of the sky. The main driver is solar activity. We are currently in the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 25, when sunspot numbers and explosive solar events increase. NASA and NOAA announced in October 2024 that the Sun had entered solar maximum.
27.02.2026
Nothern lights light up the sky over Hotel Rangá. Photo: Herman Desmet
Nothern lights light up the sky over Hotel Rangá. Photo: Herman Desmet

During solar maximum, the Sun produces more solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). When Earth is hit by these bursts of charged particles, geomagnetic activity increases and the auroral oval expands and brightens. That expansion is key for visibility: the aurora becomes more widespread and more likely to be seen from places that sit close to the typical auroral zone.

Iceland benefits from location. Much of the country lies under or near the auroral oval on many nights, and during stronger geomagnetic events the odds improve further. In practical terms, this means more “camera friendly” displays, more nights with activity across a wider portion of the sky, and more opportunities for visitors to catch the lights even on shorter winter itineraries.

Will they stay strong over the next few years

Solar maximum is not a single date. It is a phase that can last months to years, and strong aurora producing events can continue even as the cycle begins to decline.

For travel trade partners marketing Iceland as a winter destination, the outlook remains positive for the near term:

  • 2026 to 2027: Likely still a strong period for aurora tourism because the declining phase can continue to produce impactful geomagnetic storms, even if average activity slowly decreases.

  • Late 2020s toward 2030: A gradual drop is expected as Solar Cycle 25 progresses toward its next minimum, based on standard solar cycle progression forecasting. 
    Source: NOAA

How to message this for winter marketing

Position the next couple of winters as a high opportunity window for aurora experiences, while keeping expectations accurate. The Northern Lights are a natural phenomenon, so visibility still depends on cloud cover, darkness, and solar wind conditions. A helpful sales angle is to encourage multi night stays, flexible evening plans, and experiences that are rewarding even without an aurora, such as geothermal bathing, winter food culture, and guided night excursions focused on the broader dark sky experience.